Kelly Criterion in Finance and Insuring Against Underperformance

Speaker: 

Greg Zitelli

Institution: 

UC Irvine

Time: 

Wednesday, March 2, 2016 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Host: 

Location: 

RH 340P

The growth-optimal (Kelly) criterion almost surely leads to more capital in the long run and reaches levels of capital asymptotically faster than alternative strategies, but such outperformance may not be realized with high probability for an exceptionally long time. We will first demonstrate how the Kelly criterion arises in finance without first appealing to a logarithmic utility function, and then consider strategies based on alternative utilities that emphasize the probability of exceeding an underperforming benchmark faster than Kelly.

Growth-Optimality vs Security Against Underperformance

Speaker: 

Greg Zitelli

Institution: 

UC Irvine

Time: 

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Host: 

Location: 

Rowland Hall 340P

The growth-optimal (Kelly) criterion almost surely leads to more capital in the long run and reaches levels of capital asymptotically faster than alternative strategies, but such outperformance may not be realized with high probability for an exceptionally long time. We will consider strategies based on alternative utilities that emphasize the probability of exceeding an underperforming benchmark faster than Kelly.

Kelly Criterion of Fat-Tailed Returns

Speaker: 

Steve Schulist

Institution: 

Quantitative Analyst, PIMCO

Time: 

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Host: 

Location: 

RH 340P

We will discuss the mathematics of portfolio optimization, assuming asset returns have a fat-tailed, alpha-stable distribution. A PDF-file of the slides is available for download.

http://www.math.uci.edu/sites/math.uci.edu/files/Fat Tailed Kelly.pdf

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